Sunday 11 January 2009

Opinion Polls - Good Or Bad

Accepting the integrity of opinion polls in that, yes, the questions asked have been put to a representative cross-section of the public; the other area of contention will be the type of question(s) asked.

Let us consider the latest opinion poll on the subject of this country's membership of the European Union, conducted by YouGov on behalf of The Taxpayers Alliance and Global Vision. We all know from where TPA are coming, but not a lot of people know that Global Vision is a think-tank whose premise is that change can be effected from within the EU (similar to the position adopted by the Conservative Party).

Hence the manner in which the questions were framed. For example; How to you intend to vote in the EU elections; how would you vote on a referendum to join the euro and what is the ideal relationship between Britain and the EU? The last question had three options: Withdraw; Have a looser relationship; Remain a full member on current terms.

This latest opinion poll, as do many really, falls down on one basic premise; that the poller assumes the person taking part has a grasp of all the issues. For example how many of those questioned know the difference between the European Court of Justice and the Court of Human Rights? How many of those questioned were aware that asking whether they wanted 'looser ties' with the EU was a pointless option in that a satisfactory outcome cannot be obtained under present conditions. The Sunday Telegraph report (Both editions of the Telegraph, Daily & Sunday, really must start employing journalists who have at least a basic understanding about the subject matter on which they write!) offers us the statement that "Almost two thirds of voters want.....including an end to the supremacy of the European Court of Justice", As Richard North, over on EUReferendum says, 'fudging the issue' of the supremacy of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is so fundamental to the EU that to reject the ECJ is, in effect, to reject the EU in its entirety. Therefore the third question should really only have had two parts - Withdraw or Stay In.

Those who have made even a superficial study of the EU and the EU Treaties (Telegraph journalists take note) realise that you cannot not 'pick and choose', whilst accepting the political constraints of membership, what bits of the EU you like. There is only one option and this is either we totally withdraw and then re-negotiate our terms to a level such as Norway has; or we remain as we are, subject to effective rule over our lives.

Another point worth making is that I doubt very much whether the public is aware that a vote for any one of the three main parties on EU membership will not make one iota of difference in that Con/Lab/Lib are all for remaining a member of the EU. The only party offering a way out is the UK Independence Party and the public does need to recognise this fact; however this leads to another aspect of the equation.

Whilst I agree with 99% of the UK Independence Party's aims/ideals I do have to say it is its own worst enemy. For a party that is presenting itself to the public as a potential 'Government-in-waiting', their image and presentation is, in my opinion, 'a joke'.

On 4th June 2009 the people of Britain will be able to make their choice - Get Out or Stay In. It is up to the British public whether they wish to adhere to a basic principle; that of having the right to govern themselves thus deciding the laws under which they wish to live, or whether they are content to have, virtually, the minutiae of the lives controlled by unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats in a foreign country.

In the years to come, if you have chosen to remain a member of the EU, please don't come crying to me as I shall only say - I told you so!


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